At the end of 2019, LightCounting released 12th edition of its active optical cables (AOCs) and embedded optical modules (EOMs) report which found that despite the diversity in products, nearly two-thirds of the total units from 2020-2024 will be due to just two products, 1x10G and 1x25G AOCs. That’s in spite of the fact that the company’s new AOC unit forecast for the year 2023, shown in the figure below, is 43% lower than its December 2018 forecast, mainly due to reduction in demand estimates for 1xN products by Chinese hyperscale datacenter operators. LightCounting’s AOC revenue forecast for 2023 has increased 20% however, due to a new 400G (8x50G) AOC that it believes will see significant usage in high performance computers (HPCs), cloud, and core routing applications.
LightCounting also sees an acceleration of speed through the forecast period. It says that while 100G products are ramping quickly in both HPC and the data centre, HPC is now moving quickly to reach 200G, beginning in 2019. However, one upcoming supercomputer could consume 243,000 100G AOCs if installed fully scaled out. Cloud usage of 100G AOCs is finally broadening but the report does not assume that 200GbE AOCs will become a significant opportunity in Ethernet.
While 100G products are ramping quickly in both HPC and the data centre, HPC is now moving quickly to get to the next speed, 200G, beginning in 2019. Still, one upcoming supercomputer could consume 243,000 100G AOCs if installed fully scaled out. Cloud usage of 100G AOCs is finally broadening but we are not assuming that 200GbE AOCs will become a significant opportunity in Ethernet.